Article by Bogdan Tsupryk, analyst
The main issue with this logic is that Russia is an increasingly diverse country both in terms of ethnicity and religion. Putin’s western supporters are very poorly informed of Russia’s culture and history, and evidently have never been to the country, hence, they are limited to the view through their rose-colored glasses, happily delivered to them by Russia Today, Sputnik or InfoWars, free of charge.
Ann Coulter: ‘In 20 years, Russia will be the only country that is recognizably European.
In particular, the ‘enemy of my enemy is my friend’ notion increased most in the United States. In light of the projection that non-hispanic whites will be a minority by 2042, many radical groups, including racially motivated organisations, out of desperation, show support for Putin’s challenge to the current world order, which seems to be an unstoppable global mechanism of immigration to the West. A possible reversal to growing demographic heterogeneity of America seen by the MAGA-wing is a strong, authoritarian leader, who would have the sufficient tools to destroy the current order. A leader that could build a wall and slow down the demographic change, perhaps.
Many MAGA-type groups are not foreign policy isolationists, but are in fact, pro-Putin. All that matters now, is the struggle against the so-called woke-politics. In fact, republicans, despite showing support for Ukraine overall, showed less support for Ukraine than the Democrats (due to MAGA-group outliers) following Russia’s invasion.
Tucker Carlson: ‘Has Putin ever called me a racist? Has he threatened to get me fired for disagreeing with him? Has he shipped every middle-class job in my town to Russia?’
The truth is that all the common ethno-nationalist anxieties seem to be happening in Russia as well. A low ethnic Russian birth rate (along with other groups of European ancestry) combined with high immigration rates from the Caucasus and central Asia (incl. Muslim-majority countries), have demonstrated a significant demographic shift since the collapse of the Soviet Union. An overall declining population, the only regions that seem to be increasing in natural population growth are regions inhabited predominantly by ethnic minorities such as the northern Caucasus. The demographic changes were not too noticeable until immigration from these regions coupled with foreign immigration from central Asia affected Moscow, St. Petersburg and other large cities. ‘Moscow ain’t rubber’ is a common saying coined in the last two decades due to high immigration of Chechens, Ingush, Tatars, Uzbek, Tajiks, Azerbaijanis and many others to Russia’s capital. Some jokingly call Moscow ‘Moskvabad’, a humorous way to change the name into a more central Asian and Middle-Eastern one (e.g. Islamabad).
Streets during Ramadan in Moscow have been getting more packed every year, despite the local government only having four mosques serving the festivities. Speculation over the statistics provided by the national census of 2010 have cast doubtful results (92% of Moscow’s population being Russian), however, it is simply difficult to establish due to the relative ease of moving to Moscow from Chechnya or Tatarstan in large numbers, omitting official statistics. Perhaps, realistic statistics are being held in order to not build further ethno-nationalist anxieties in Russia, as that again, would challenge Putin’s regime. Conveniently, the Russian national census of 2021 did not have data on ethnicity due to limitations forced by the COVID-19 pandemic. Some high-ranking local officials estimate that around 3 to 4 million muslims live in Moscow now, compared to less than a million in 1997. Others put the figure at around 2 million or less. Nevertheless, this puts Russian nationalists (incl. christian nationalists) strongly at odds with the regime.
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Moreover, the increase of the Muslim population in Russia has accordingly been noted due to a higher rate of construction of new mosques. Between 2000 and 2014, (the first 14 years of Putin’s regime), an estimated 7500 new mosques were erected. Russia’s chief muslim spokesman in 2019, made a prediction that the country will be one third Muslim in 15 years. What would one make of this if they were an Islamophobic and racist MAGA-fanatic? There is a carefully crafted information barrier between the West and Russia on this issue. There are certain aspects of Russia that the russophile far-right of the West is never meant to see. MAGA-wing republicans seem to think that Putin is committed to making Russia more ‘Russian’. The reality is Russia’s demographic outlook is comparable to that of North America and western Europe – meaning diversification.
Moreover, Putin treads very carefully when it comes to internal ethnic conflict. After two Chechen Wars, he adhered to a policy of appeasement of the region (despite inflicting mass casualties on the civilian population in Chechnya in both wars). Bringing back Chechnya under federal control came at a long-term cost – Russia would have to pay off the Northern Caucasus region in exchange for their loyalty. No matter how bad the economic situation is in Russia, Chechnya always gets its subsidies duly and on time. When funding cuts occur, Chechnya always gets a pass. One can call this a simple precaution to avoid another conflict by Putin. Perhaps this power shift is directly linked to demographic change as the proportionality of each group’s political influence will change once its population significantly grows. Even in an authoritarian state, one would have to consider appeasement of minority groups (that are rapidly growing) as a viable option for them to be loyal to the central government. The deepening of this tendency can be seen further: Ramzan Kadyrov, the Head of the Chechen Republic in Russia, is likely to become one of the Federal Security Service’s (FSB) leading ‘behind-the-scenes’ figures, according to insider informants on Gulagu.net, an internet resource used for informational leaks from within the FSB. This seems like a possible solution to the potential retirement (due to ageing) of the current head of FSB, Alexander Bortnikov.
Another example of Putin’s careful tread on ethnic tensions in Russia can be seen throughout earlier years of his tenure as well. Following the death of a Spartak Moscow fan in a fight with a group of Northern Caucasians in Moscow in 2010, riots broke out in Moscow. Nationalists and far-right rioters took to the Manezhnaya square and numerous incidents of attacks on ethnic minorities were reported. Slogans of ‘Russia for Russians’ and ‘Moscow for Muscovites’ echoed through the square. In a televised appearance addressing the riots, Putin, untypically stuttered when discussing the conflict at hand. ‘We must extinguish extremism from all sides. We cannot generalise any group, neither the Caucasians [people of the Caucasus] nor… people of…[too risky to say Russian] other backgrounds’. Putin has been increasingly careful about the use of the word ‘Русский’ (Russkiy) in recent years, referring to Russian ethnicity and instead often prefers the word ‘Российский’ ‘Rossiyskiy’ which simply means Russian by nationality (i.e. being from the Russian Federation). Putin is simply unable and unwilling to appease Russian nationalists on domestic issues. In any case, they seem to be losing political power on this issue to other groups.
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Putin created his self-image of a devoted ethno-nationalist for western consumers that are increasingly dissatisfied by demographic shifts and ethnic diversification in their countries (namely, the US and western Europe). Putin then garners support from the western far-right who are more loyal than ever, and are very useful when it comes to delaying weapon shipments to Ukraine or vetoing new sanctions against Russia.
Domestically, Putin has not even hinted at the idea of a ‘Russian’ Russia (not that it makes him less xenophobic towards Chechens, Ukrainians or others). In fact, Russia will continue to become less ‘Russian’. Moreover, Putin is devoted to appeasement in order to avoid internal ethnic conflicts in Russia (e.g. Chechnya), as they would threaten his already not ‘too tight’ grip on power.